Chyna Balloon

 On the China balloon thing; this event strikes me as being a "proof of concept" demonstration of lighter-than-air lifting body control technology development. Granted a classical balloon isn't at all "cutting edge" lifting body design, but the control software and hardware to tack and jibe to deliberately maneuver the balloon into and across the prevailing wind is (tacking and jibing a vessel is well understood conceptually; doing so autonomously is less so). This strikes me as being the most easily achievable means of extending the overhead observation time window over a given geographic region.

As to not shooting it down over land, while it's always possible the Chinese chose to just bleed off hydrogen from the balloon to power an on-board generator, the Chinese space program has almost certainly acquired/developed "nuclear battery" technology (which is technically neither; radioactive material creating heat as a by-product of its decay rate and converting that heat directly into electricity isn't nearly as easy to say though and is technology that is at least as old as Voyager 1) and would likely regard this as a good test platform for their latest development efforts in that technology. Having some hunter/hiker find one of those cracked open on the ground somewhere is not an eventuality to casually take a risk over with the open ocean off America's coastline being such a ready-to-hand option instead. It should be noted that the USN has extensive undersea recovery technology immediately at hand along the US eastern seaboard. As long as the device came down on the US continental shelf (and since the shoot down was filmable from land this seems virtually certain), recovering objects from less than 100 fathoms depth isn't all that technologically challenging for a well-enough heeled private citizen these days (Hello James Cameron!). Remember that Challenger went down well beyond the depths to be expected from this shoot down and that wreckage was closely examined in situ as well as partially recovered back onto land.

The more interesting question to me is, how did the Chinese receive whatever data was collected by the device? What did the (alleged!) surveillance device record, and to what did it transmit that data (in what spectrum?)? All of this can be ascertained from any wreckage that is recovered from the sea bed, if only by analysis of the components used in its manufacture.

An interesting event. Mostly not even remotely well reported on. Hopefully that part of things will be improved upon sooner than later.

Opportunity Thy Name Is Starbase, Texas

 On March 2nd (yesterday as I write this), Elon Musk published a tweet announcing the creation of Starbase, Texas, a new city. This creates the perfect opportunity for Musk to resolve one of the main objections to his Tesla production goals - where does the electricity to charge all of those vehicles to come from? - by addressing the related question, where does the electricity for a Mars or Lunar colony come from?

It is a matter of black letter law here in Texas that a property of 100 acres or more, that is outside the boundaries of a municipality, can host a gun range whether or not the neighbors agree or a municipality later expands to include said property. Given that 100 acres can be near-as-dammit 1,100 feet wide by 4,000 feet long (yes, I realize an "acre" is a measure of area and thus has no fixed dimension), a 1 thousand yard long rifle range probably won't be more than 500 feet wide (and likely less), which leaves the several hundred feet of land on either side to host a vehicle driving track, about which more later. As a business, an outdoor shooting range can be marginally profitable on its own; as part of an outdoor recreation complex, such a business would likely succeed financially depending on how close it is to the outskirts of a municipality.

Where might Elon Musk put the electric generating plant(s) needed to power the city of Starbase, not to mention all those electric cars and trucks (and other vehicles) he is already building at Tesla? How about under ground, beneath the rifle range? There are various reactor designs from which to choose, especially if you don't want to develop weapons-grade plutonium as a "by product" of your power plant. While a Helium 3 (3He hereafter) fusion reactor seems the currently best option for use here on Earth, molten-salt type fission reactors are possibly a better option for off-planet applications (fusion converts water into energetic particles and thus needs to be regularly replaced; fission re-uses a super-heated liquid to create steam - also reused - to power electric generators, and radiation isn't as big an issue in space) while still providing the rigorous safety technology needed for operation here on Earth (or any other planetary body). How quickly could SpaceX get a Starship onto Luna, to deliver as semi-autonomous (Hello Starlink) as necessary surface mining equipment, with which to extract 3He from the lunar surface? A second Starship vehicle will almost certainly be required to efficiently shuttle 3He to Earth (and eventually Mars) for final processing as reactor fuel, of course. If the molten salt fission reactor works out instead, can 3He be used as fuel in one? If not, how does one go about buying up that much thorium (or whatever)?

Depending upon the reactor design chosen, it should be possible to build ten 100 megawatt power plants below ground under the rifle range/recreation center property suggested above. By distributing the electricity thus generated through a network of tunnels as deeply as necessary beneath the already established right-of-ways underneath existing state and/or federal highways, it becomes possible to add as much as one terawatt of new-generation electricity to the Texas electricity grid from this one property. Extending this model, it becomes possible to add and distribute as many terawatt increases to the US power grid as 100 acre plots of land can be purchased for the purpose. The announcement of Starbase city creates the ideal opportunity for Elon Musk to combine all of his corporate creations in more-or-less direct support of his plans for off-Terra development of human civilization, while fortifying existing human civilization here on Terra.

If Tesla were to buy the One Wheel company along with the Zero Motorcycles company and fold both into the Tesla sales network, these would provide additional products for Tesla to market here on Earth that would seem to also have application on Mars or Luna in either human operated or autonomous mode operations. In the meantime, having one or more tracks upon which to ride rented or privately owned examples of all Tesla products seems to offer a selection of potential businesses to explore, while training future Loonies and Marsmen* as well. By providing Tesla and SpaceX engineers a location(s) to test and develop power generation and transportation technologies, while simultaneously generating a new income stream for both companies, this proposal also potentially solves the needed energy additions and the distribution security concerns to the US (as well as Mexico and Canada if that should become US foreign policy) national power grids (there are three, East, Texas, and West), all from within the existing boundaries of the Texas power grid network.

If it needs to be said, I'd like to work at the rifle range, Elon.

* See Podkayne of Mars by Robert A. Heinlein

Building Our Soup Bowl*

Recently, Elon Musk announced that SpaceX will begin building "floating superheavy-class spaceports" for its launch and recovery of spacecraft; IOW VTOL aircraft carriers. One presumes these vessels will include repair and re-condition capabilities for Falcon and Starship vehicles as an initial minimum standard, with all that that includes engineering-wise.

It probably shouldn't go without saying that the usual run of blue-water vessel crewing requirements will also be necessary; Captain, bridge watchstanders, communications and radar operators and maintenance workers, both ship and flight deck engineering and maintenance personnel, culinary and other human support crew ... it's a long list of ship handling and maintenance specialties whose tasks have to be provided for both in personnel and in logistic support, along with all of the financial commitments doing that entails. I presume Mr. Musk will operate these ships under Texas registration and regulations; if so he might want to strongly consider creating a Texas-based security company which employs Level III licensed guards trained to function in a nautical environment (trained EMT's/Paramedics and maybe rescue swimmers combines several potential requirements), particularly in light of the threat potential such a complex investment seems almost certain to attract. (See: Update below)

There is plenty of existing commercial experience to draw upon to develop a shore support effort (all those oil well platforms in the Gulf and elsewhere); and let's face it, aircraft carriers have been in existence for a century now, as has replenishing them logistically underway - hardly cutting edge science there. A lot of additional features to develop of course; making sure your boat doesn't catch fire and explode every landing and launch understandably being high on that list. Mr. Musk and his team will be fully occupied for some years getting all of this underweigh.

A technology I think Mr. Musk should look into is Life Proof Boats (I don't have any connection to the company, I'm just impressed with what I've seen so far) . They don't heavily advertise them, but they do offer a 48' version that at first look seems a useful platform to economically provide logistic support to a vessel operating within a few hundred miles of harbor, as well as fire fighting support and crew escape (one of these could easily tow one or two standard 20 person life rafts) while the carrier is on station. Hanging some Oxe Diesel Outboard Engines off the stern would permit an economy of performance hard to beat, I think (no connection to this company either, but one fuel for all vessels just seems a better option to me). Additionally, I can't help believing that Star Link provides a platform by which much of the work involved with one or a fleet of space launch and recovery ships can be equally well performed remotely by operators on shore.

Additionally, I find myself attracted to the idea that, much like commercial yachts hiring their Captain and Chief Engineer to be involved in the vessel build process, potentially being able to watch the development of the procedures and technologies used to achieve the SpaceX fleet logistics requirements during their development strongly attracts me. In part because I served on a USN carrier back at the tail end of the Vietnam war, in part because I like the challenge of small boat handling (on and off the boat), and in part because I worked 15+ years in some aspect of logistics that didn't involve a desk.

We'll see ... and that's the best part of all.  :)

*Jerry Pournelle famously coined the phrase, "It's raining soup in space, we just need to build a bowl and go get some."

Update 6/21/2020: A security force - importantly, one that works for you - that is trained in repelling, investigating, and documenting (to appropriate legal standard) criminal acts both on and off the high seas isn't a needless cost; see: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/world/americas/gulf-mexico-pirates-ships.html

File under: Things To Do While In Self-Isolation

This is a D-I-Y ventilator. The project appears to have begun as a slightly OCD response to an earlier outbreak of Avian Flu, which shares many symptom attributes to COVID-19. Keep in mind, most people who contract COVID-19 won't really need a ventilator, and if you don't use one right you can hurt yourself worse than not using one at all, nevertheless finding one mid-pandemic will be challenging to put it delicately.

This concept is very much a "Tim the Tool Man" idea (that absolutely DOES NOT require moar power), but I think the basic design would benefit from a creative adaptation of miniature air compressor technology and CPAP components (think tubing, head mounting hardware, and face mask), all easily sourced from Amazon.

Not for everybody, I admit, OTOH you never can tell what might develop from amateur projecting.

Hat Tip to Rand Simberg for finding this one.

What makes a hormone?

No, it's not a burning $100 bill.

It has been well known, if not at all well understood why, that women frequently experience elevated levels of pain as part of menstruation (amongst other female-specific life events). Researchers at the University of Arizona have recently published a paper that appears to have identified at least one of the neurological pathways such pain signals may follow.

Frank Porreca, Ph.D., associate department head, a professor of Pharmacology, anesthesiology, cancer biology and neuroscience at the college, and senior author on the study, notes it always has been understood that women experience some types of pain that occur without injury (known as "functional pain syndromes") more than men. The reasons for this never were clearly understood. A possible explanation the researchers explored was the differences in the cells and nerves that send pain signals to the brain in women and men.

The findings suggest new pain-management therapies targeting the prolactin system would greatly benefit women suffering from functional pain syndromes.

Don't take my word for it, RTWT. And take hope ladies; not only is PMS a real thing medically, you have reason to believe a method for managing the process may soon be available to you.

Show of Hands

The COVID2019 strain of coronavirus currently making its way around the world out of mainland China seems to have a strong affinity for humans of Han Chinese descent, but also appears to be transmissible via the usual means to pretty much any proximate human: airborne droplets, direct and indirect physical contact, and feces (I've found no reports regarding urine specifically). This means the virus can be transmitted to others by the usual coughing, sneezing, and sweat (this accounts for both the direct physical contact and the indirect contact [door handles, push plates/bars, etc]) common to influenza coronaviruses generally. Transmission via feces among human populations isn't a method commonly discussed during preparation conversations, I think.

There is a phrase that is more common among English English speakers than among American English speakers; cack handed. As anyone who followed the dramatic series Rome will know, the word "cack" is latin for "shit", as in human and other sourced feces. In modern English language parlance, this is mostly a somewhat less-than-complimentary reference to those among us who are left hand dominate; cack handed = left handed.

There are other modern potential applications of the phrase.

In Iranian society, the phrase "cack handed" isn't used specifically due to the widespread practice of using the left hand to literally "wipe your bum" as our English cousins so delicately put it. Thus, cack handedness is simply the expected social practice in Iranian culture. How this relates to COVID2019 transmission out of a Han dominate human haplogroup is what Iranians frequently do after wiping.

Commonly, Iranians believe that rinsing the left hand off with water as a part of their toilet ritual is sufficient to comply with the health strictures of their version of Islam. From personal experience with Iranian culture, I know that hand soap and toilet paper are commonplace items in Iranian shops, or at least were 40+ years ago (mullahs being as human as the rest of us, one presumes they prefer their bum boys to be self-maintaining, as it were, such that these products continue to be available in Iranian shops today). The Iranian government has published that their "patient zero" is an individual who regularly travels to the PRC from his home and business in the city of Qom. The pathogen has spread from there, with a senior government minister in Tehran recently being identified as having contracted the disease (illustrating that this hand wiping practice isn't restricted to the "lower classes").

I think it can safely be asserted that Iranians are not as rigorous as they might be in completing all other tasks with the right hand only (which I don't believe is actually a religious stricture anyway).

A few thoughts come quickly to mind; how commonplace is this practice in Muslim societies generally? How much interaction is there between foreign posted Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel and the other Muslim populations they are "embedded" with? Shifting focus a bit, what are toilet rituals in Africa like, especially in those regions of that continent that "enjoy" close relations (cough) with ex-pat PRC populations? Even further afield, how likely is it that rigorous hand washing and wide-spread availability of TP being commonplace practice within the favelas of Brazil and their equivalent populations in other S. American countries? For that matter, here in the United States?

On a final not-unrelated note, I have recently learned that the UN's World Health Organization apparently doesn't have a specific mechanism whereby to declare a health pandemic. That being true, is it all that unrealistic to assume their long-since declared "health emergency" to be a practicable synonym for same?

For further advice, I can only refer the reader to the much-copied, never-surpassed Redd Foxx.

Update 2/27/2020; hat tip Instapundit: You wish I was making this stuff up: Applying essential oil to anus cures coronavirus says Iranian cleric. One shudders to think how deeply "onto" the application should go.

Update 3/2/2020; hat tip Brian Wang - Next Big Future: On a much more serious note, there is this https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/03/iranian-leaders-are-infected-with-coronavirus-and-pilgrims-are-licking-a-shrine.html. Please note that this is now a possibility that humanity has to seriously plan for: "If Iran is overwhelmed by Coronavirus then they would be a massive pool of infection for spread to the rest of the middle east. If millions of Iranians are infected then there would (be a*) need to prevent infected people being used as tools of terrorism". (* my edit)

Update 3/4/2020, hat tip Instapundit (again): I swear to God, I didn't ask (see update 2/27) https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/world/coronavirus-there-are-2-types-chinese-researchers-find-while-authorities-say-faeces-and-urine-can-transmit-the-infection/ar-BB10HP6x?li=BBr8Cnr.
"Coronavirus: there are 2 types, Chinese researchers find, while authorities say faeces and urine can transmit the infection"  Apparently we're all still gonna die, and along the way we're all gonna catch some variant of COVID19. SSDD.

On AI

I recently participated in a podcast  in which the concept of Artificial Intelligence came up. Basically, there are two fundamental categories of AI: Weak AI and Strong AI.

To dismiss the latter first, Strong AI exhibits all of the intellectual capabilities of a human being and does so at an exponentially faster speed and more accurately than any human is capable of. This all hinges on the (so far) handwavium of designing and building a machine that is capable of human-type imagination or cognitive leaps of intuition. The difficulty here is, we don't now how we humans do this, so the question then becomes: how do we build a machine that possesses a capability we can neither fully describe the function of nor replicate within ourselves? Unless and until we can fully describe and replicate the electro-chemical neurological processes that transpire in the human brain when we individually experience imagining a concept that is not contained within the disparate data sources we link together to inspire that intuitive leap, there simply isn't the possibility of including that capability into a device we construct.

Weak AI, however, I believe is essentially within our existing technological grasp. If you network 7 distinct Alexa units into what I term a "data orchestra", you can replicate the appearance of a Jarvis-like (from the first two Ironman films) entity. The primary unit is the Director which contains within its internal hard drive and memory the contents of a dictionary, thesaurus, and literary style guide. This unit coordinates the input from the remaining units. Each of the remaining six units has the entire contents of an encyclopedia downloaded to internal memory and one sixth of that in as great a level of detail as the data record allows. A sufficiently capable data search and retrieval system, with a robust prioritization function for assigning "relevance values" to disparate data returns, would permit the primary unit to conduct a "conversation" between the six sections of the orchestra and the inquiring human. By providing a range and depth of pre-programmed decision trees allowing the combined unit to semi-autonomously manage certain functions independent of direct human management, we begin to approach a functional emulation of what I regard as a true - if limited - Weak Artificial Intelligence.

Data security from external sources (particularly during the necessarily frequent content updates required to keep such a device current) is a critical matter to be addressed before such a device might be safely marketed, but that too is within current technology capabilities. No doubt there will be other concerns not considered here, but this does demonstrate what is possible today, I believe.

It's All In The Timing, Phil

A couple of years ago now, Phil Bowermaster organized a project involving contributed ideas from others; the below is a re-wording of my suggestion that didn't make the submission cut. The principle objection I can remember being raised was, in so many words, "Why would Jeff Bezos do any such thing? What's in it for him?" What seemed a foregone conclusion to me then, wasn't at all obvious to Phil (or anyone else, come to that) a year-and-a-half ago. With Jeff Bezos' recent announcement regarding off-planet production and heavy manufacturing plans, I'm prompted to dust this submission off, re-tool it in ways large and not-so, and see if anyone notices. Herewith, My Proposal:

How Jeff Bezos Can Hire Humanity.

[last edit made to this document on January 14, 2015 by Phil Bowermaster]

The basic idea being suggested here is that Jeff Bezos (of Amazon.com fame) spends the money necessary to develop an online game quite similar in concept to that developed by the US Army to teach potential recruits the conceptual basics of soldiering competencies.  From the Americas Army wikipedia page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americas_Army), details of the game’s progression to gradually more difficult actions and capabilities needed by the individual player suggests a model for how such a game format could teach players how to successfully conceptualize, operate and/or maintain complex machinery remotely, both individually and in coordination with other players.  One possible mechanism whereby players could test their skills development would involve modifying at least some Amazon.com warehouse operations to permit remote operation of material handling and loading machines (basically modified fork lift trucks). By performing stipulated and rigorously measured portions of the functions of that company's order fulfillment operations, in cooperation with the on-site human staff already locally employed, a real-world process development laboratory could be created at little added expense.

As the Americas Army game experience makes clear, it becomes a fairly straightforward (if by no means easy or cheap) development process to create a game format that applies the same compendium of instruction concepts for use within progressively more complex and radical environments.  Like underwater archaeology and marine salvage.  Like air, land, sea and even extra-planetary search and rescue operations.  Like orbital clean-up operations in association with other private companies as well as government extra-planetary agencies. Like orbital mining and refining operations (not to push the point too hard).  Like lunar (or undersea) exploration and development.  Like orbital construction and tourism.  Like continued exploration and colonization of Mars and other orbital bodies within our Solar system.  As a straightforward extrapolation of related-seeming technologies, exploration and resource acquisition operations in the asteroid belt might be developed from terrestrial undersea or deep underground mining operations skill sets learned in the game.  

In the near-immediate time frame: universal language translation programs developed by a consortium of bi- or multilingual individuals working remotely through dedicated server and data storage devices managed and marketed within the game environment.  Physical security monitoring and response operations so that individuals can be employed to remotely carry out traditional security observation and emergency response tasks on a continuous basis and, not incidentally, earn a living through the game environment while developing their more technical skill sets.

The game would be structured in several layers of play experience.  The initial level would test player skill and general knowledge levels and supply the means to begin further developing those through game interaction.  By doing so, players can “teach themselves” to transition to the next level of play.

The second level would offer individual players the means to transition from simply playing the game, to performing game functions in an occupational setting.  Initially these would be in the Amazon test-of-concept order fulfillment center or the security services suggested earlier in this document, but these and future players would move on to other, more technical, types of work as quickly as their ability permits and opportunities can be made available.  These opportunities do not necessarily require a purely business motive; scientific research and public service operations both come readily to mind as alternative possibilities for player development through remote operations performed through the game interface.

For those players who wish to develop a more general academic knowledge base, the game interface could be linked to any of the host of online education portals that exist. Documenting continuing education is already part of corporate structure, incorporating that into the game format shouldn't pose too excessive a problem. Additional, more specifically focused, levels of play are certainly possible, but itemizing a list of that nature exceeds my limited editorial skills. Suffice it to say that I envision the game process described here as being a species of digital skilled trades hiring hall and training school to develop the host of technically skilled employees for an industry that doesn't actually exist yet that Jeff Bezos will be needing to hire around the world to remotely construct and operate the orbital facilities he has described elsewhere. Ultimately, all of the above tasks (and more, I'm confident) performed by humans, working part time on multiple projects and jobs, in remote cooperation with as-yet uncountable other humans, designing, building, operating and maintaining machines and facilities big and small for use in every conceivable environment that human science enables human or machine access to.  And all of those people working directly for, or as a result of being trained by, Jeff Bezos (well, one of his companies).

Alternatively, we can just sit around between rioting stewing in our frustrated juices, watching the planet's accessible resources be further consumed, while we await the promise of fusion AI to save/doom us all.

While I envision this type of work being comfortably performed from a space in one's home smaller than an ordinary American bathroom (about 15 cubic meters or so - 2 x 3 x 2.5 meters roughly), one of the obvious early investment and partnership opportunities arising from such a planet-spanning effort is construction of a location in local neighborhoods that provides the residents with a game participation site outside their private home or apartment. There seem to be a number of vacant former book stores available for re-purposing in recent years.

One of the most pressing challenges humanity currently confronts is how we will collectively transition out of the undeniably collapsing Industrial Revolution social and economic model we currently experience.  The game concept presented here is one possible mechanism for achieving that transition on a widespread and minimally disruptive basis.  It remains only to develop the platform necessary to spark the growth of that process throughout the human species.

Is There A (Black)Light At The End Of Our Power Tunnel?

Recently in the news again is Blacklight Power with reports of their novel theory on atomic structure having been independently verified and clearly explained for the less-technically inclined (which definitely includes me).  Assuming Randall Mills and the Blacklight gang really have developed a commercially scale-able invention (not to mention a new page in the theory of physics), it seems worth a little time to think about some of the potential opportunities this permits to the rest of us.

If we take as a given that the Blacklight power supply itself is about 1 cubic foot in dimension, it seems reasonable to further stipulate that a sealed electrical generator (one that is isolated from external environmental conditions) also of about 1 cubic foot in external dimension could be fitted to pretty much any vehicle's differential gearbox.  Whether that be a vehicle like this one, or something more substantial, or even something along more classic lines, transportation will transition out of the historic model assumptions that have accrued over the centuries.  A vehicle that can also be made to supply its own fuel requirements can only further alter those assumptions.  RV owners (and wannabes like me) will be understandably excited over the reduced operating costs, so imagine if you will what the CFO's of FedEx and UPS are in for?

Now, apply that same line of thought to the house you live in.  In the space of a small closet (say 25 cubic feet, 2' x 3' x 8' roughly) you could install a Blacklight SunCell - let's further assume a very downscale 100kw version, an atmospheric water generator and a central air heating and cooling system suitable for pretty much any structure up to ~4000 sq ft. and a family of 5 plus guest(s).  Extending that model to other structural applications, you gradually leave behind the current model of "grid power distribution" while creating a business opportunity for individuals and businesses during the transition.  I wonder how many people in Oakland, CA, just for instance, would be interested in dehumidifying the Bay area for distribution into the state's aqueduct system as a "home business water utility"?  You think the people and businesses in the southern half of the state (where the vast majority of the voters live and work) might have something to say in support of such a concept?

Now pause to consider this general model applied to water craft (of any description).

If the powers-that-be were to create a fee-exempt class of boat permit for any houseboat on Lake Powell and Lake Mead that generated an additional 100 gallons of fresh water per 24 hour day deposited into the lake, I have to believe the population of houseboats on both lakes would increase substantially.  While this wouldn't "solve" the water shortage problem in either lake, it would be a contributing factor to such a solution that imposed no added public expense.  Extending this concept to the permitting and construction of privately owned lake shore properties on both lakes that generated 1000 gallons of fresh water per day would seem an equally useful idea.

Taking this thought even further; if the governments of Denver, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston (to name only 5 possible examples, as at least 4 of them pump from the same aquifer) were to stipulate a property tax abatement on buildings that consumed no water from ground sources, I have to think there would be a remarkable easing of the demand on the existing water sources supplying those cities.  Now, add water desalination and pipelines from coastal areas that were powered by Blacklight technology to feed water into the existing water impoundment system in the US and much of the present day concern about the availability of fresh water is alleviated.

Commercial shipping - to include large yachts, I expect - is already an explicit target market at Blacklight Power.  I'm not convinced they've fully thought through the whole "commercial airliner" aspect, but neither have I, so I remain open to being convinced.

And that's just in the USA; with all of its coastline (and population density there-on), what do you think China will make of this development?  You think Germany (all of Europe actually) won't give serious consideration to this technology instead of Russian oil?

Opportunity always creates (or, at the least, increases already existing) dangers; Randall Mills' discovery is no different.  From Saudi oil oligarchs, to back street used car salesmen, to government tax and utility entities world-wide, there is a galaxy of entrenched interests set to suffer economic disruption, if not out-right financial destruction, from this development.  It is only to be expected there will be equally widespread and determined opposition to any such change as this offers.  The transition process will be an expensive one without any objections being raised; indeed, the sheer cost of individual transition will be one of the first screams of outrage to be widely expressed.  Judging by the reactions from just the establishment science and engineering types so far, we can expect little less than near-civil war levels of resistance from those who are simply lethargic, who don't want to make their lives better if it means they have to change something they're comfortable doing and think they understand already. Imagine the reactions from those who actually stand to lose something as a result ...

On the other hand, peace in the middle-east and northern Africa might prove to consist of muslims tending Israeli-designed green houses with water distilled from ocean breezes hundreds of miles away.

I have no idea if the Blacklight technology will pan out as a commercial product or not.  It simply seems prudent to try to think through the potential disruption that opportunity of any description always consists of. Doing so in a fairly limited context (even one as fundamentally disruptive as this example) helps develop the mindset necessary to deal with any disruptive circumstance in a more positive and successful fashion.

The Swirl Of Life?

Posted in Friday's New Scientist is an article that describes the recent - and serendipitous - discovery of how life might have formed without the presence of cells in Earth's early oceans.

Ralser's team took early ocean solutions and added substances known to be starting points for modern metabolic pathways, before heating the samples to between 50˚C and 70˚C – the sort of temperatures you might have found near a hydrothermal vent – for 5 hours. Ralser then analysed the solutions to see what molecules were present. 

"In the beginning we had hoped to find one reaction or two maybe, but the results were amazing," says Ralser. "We could reconstruct two metabolic pathways almost entirely." 

The pathways they detected were glycolysis and the pentose phosphate pathway, "reactions that form the core metabolic backbone of every living cell," Ralser adds. Together these pathways produce some of the most important materials in modern cells, including ATP – the molecule cells use to drive their machinery, the sugars that form DNA and RNA, and the molecules needed to make fats and proteins. 

If these metabolic pathways were occurring in the early oceans, then the first cells could have enveloped them as they developed membranes. 

In all, 29 metabolism-like chemical reactions were spotted, seemingly catalysed by iron and other metals that would have been found in early ocean sediments. The metabolic pathways aren't identical to modern ones; some of the chemicals made by intermediate steps weren't detected. However, "if you compare them side by side it is the same structure and many of the same molecules are formed," Ralser says. These pathways could have been refined and improved once enzymes evolved within cells.

And, quite obviously, have provided the mechanism for the evolutionary development of more complex cellular structures.

Those who argue against the Theory of Evolution like to declare that the theory can't be proven.  Absent a working two-way time machine, this is almost certainly true ... and entirely beside the point behind the theory in dispute as well as Rene Descartes's Scientific Method itself.  It is not the intent to prove how something did happen, only how it could.  The demonstration of possibility is sufficient to justify further experimentation.  At some point, the preponderance of the experimental results will (or will not) demonstrate the reproducibility of the theory - and thereby render a measure of likelihood regarding the outcome.

Faith leaps from assertion to certainty instead.

I like reading these sort of discoveries because they make clear how little we know about what we experience in life.  Claiming to already know the answers, but not being able to "show your work", seems boring and dismissive to me.  Pursuing discovery through doubt and uncertainty seems much more life-like to me.

Weird Science

Thanks to the Instapundit link, I've discovered the fascinating Soylent nutrition supplement/replacement experiment - a sort-of Open Source science project.

Mr. Robert Rhinehart of San Francisco had the inspiration to try to meet the human body's (well, his body anyway) nutritional needs directly from the basic chemical components - without all the "packaging" nature puts all of that in.  He hasn't revealed the exact percentages of the components mix yet (with certain exceptions; it seems several people with the requisite chemistry training worked it out for themselves too and they are cooperating together now from what I have read), but has stated the basic objective to be marketing of a nutritional supplement that can (mostly, it depends on the individual) replace the requirement for traditional "food" and can do so for anyone having access to potable water and a container to mix the two together.

There is a discussion board now, plans for a kickstarter type effort in the near future and the opportunity to participate in making the future. 

To appropriate the Heinlein phrase, this is opporknockity tuning in to your wavelength; don't miss out.

Aging Strategy

Maria Konovalenko (whom I took mildly to task on a different issue here and this same issue here) has a recent post up on her blog about the relationship of human aging to disease and the research funding process effects on healthy lifespan extension and traditional disease treatment therapy research processes.

She writes:

Aging is not considered to be a disease at the moment. There is no such indication as aging, therefore one can’t register a geroprotector drug, the one that slows down aging. This is one of the major hurdles in aging research. Even though there are some substances that are proven to slow down aging and protect from diseases, researchers can’t make drugs from these substances. This has to be changed if we want to live longer and healthier.

A perfectly valid observation, marred by her curative prescription:

I think it’s horrible that the NIA people are propagating this idea that aging is not a disease. They are rejecting the opportunity with their own hands. If they fought for persuading the healthcare officials to accept aging as a disease, a lot of problems would be gone instantly.

Let's be blunt here; the people staffing the US NIA are perfectly ordinary Americans trying to perform their job duties as well as they can in the job environment they occupy.  I expect they by-and-large are well-meaning people who genuinely want to improve other people's lives medically (and I'm confident Maria herself would not disagree with this observation).  The problem being, the people staffing NIA aren't free to make funding grant decisions based solely upon science - they work for the US government and so are funded by the US legislative branch of government and directed by the US executive branch of government, both of which are frequently subject to pressures from conflicting points of view.

Basically, having the .gov fund your research virtually guarantees you won't have much say in the direction your research follows and you will always find your efforts being held up as example of how wrong-headed government funded research is (if only by someone whose pet project/topic of interest isn't getting funded as well as desired).  The problem isn't a lack of funding, it's the funding regulation process itself that's having such an inhibiting effect on aging treatment research.

In her comments I wrote (in part):

Relying for research (or any other, really) funds from people who are themselves reliant upon the common perception that their opponents can create about them to portray them in a negative light will always result in a tightly constrained and medically questionable (at best) research and development (or pretty much any other, I suggest) environment. Much better, I think, to develop a different model of research funding that minimizes individual influence and maximizes transparency of research process. Government would still have a desirable role in the production and distribution process of medical treatment after all.

My thinking here is influenced by my experience with Khan Academy.  Salman Khan began his education "business" as a series of YouTube videos to tutor his niece who lived in a different city here in the USA.  Serendipitously, he chose not to make the videos private, and others soon found them and began commenting positively about them.  Eventually, financial backing was arranged and Khan Academy became the non-profit education establishment it is still in the process of becoming.

Maria Konovalenko occupies a position from which she is uniquely able to replicate that experience - not for education as such, but for creating a healthy life extension non-profit to fund research into therapies as well as educating people around the world about healthy life extension.

This would not be a quick process (Sal Khan spent 6 years building his teaching model and portfolio to arrive at the formal organizing stage), but she has the credentials and access to the researchers to begin the development process that Sal Khan himself has demonstrated.  An open-ended series of instructional YouTube videos (in as many different languages as Maria can contrive to produce - I'm guessing she isn't the only multi-lingual hottee of her personal acquaintance - but at least in both Russian and English to begin with) that explain the various principles and research efforts, and maybe some interviews of researchers themselves when possible, would make a good beginning.  Once she has a program of research direction(s) defined "on tape", she begins the process to attract funding for a non-profit, non-governmental entity to fund research into age-related effects on disease and treatments for aging aspects of (ultimately any) disease or health condition, entirely independent of government or corporate investment in similar types of research.

Maria is quite correct that present research efforts are being artificially limited, both in scope as well as direction.  I hope my comment at her blog will lead her to this page and that she gives these ideas some consideration.  I'm not getting any younger myself, after all.  Yet ...

A Transhuman Strategic Model

Maria Konovalenko is a young Russian woman who works for the Science for Life Extension foundation in Moscow, FRS  On her personal blog she recently put up a post titled Transhumanism Presentation in Tallinn at the NMR Meeting at which she made a live stage presentation of the following notion:

the opportunity to share our ideas about transhumanism as the ideology that can be used as the basis for uniting researchers and increasing the amount of funding.

  The idea seems to be most simply put as, while cooperation between disciplines can extend the available funding, the shortage of research funding is universal to all disciplines of study and won't be relieved until there is widespread "social mandate" sufficient to compel politicians to allocate public monies appropriately.

It could work.  Maria cites the lunar landings of the '60's and '70's as support of this technology development model.  I, having personally been alive throughout that whole period of human history, wish to take this opportunity to suggest that there may be a better model to consider, one that doesn't require that whole [fill in the blank] War framework of competition so critical to the US/USSR Moon Race.

FTL Is Real

As I noted a couple weeks ago, there was a re-test of the charged neutrino transmission test scheduled by CERN. The results have been announced as Brian Wang reports:

The new tests, completed 6 November, did away with the statistical analysis by splitting each pulse into bunches just 1- to 2-nanoseconds long, allowing each neutrino detected at Gran Sasso to be tied to a particular bunch produced at CERN. These tests were carried out over 10 days and provided 20 events. The researchers confirmed that the neutrinos arrived 60 nanoseconds early, with an uncertainty of about 10 nanoseconds, comparable to that of the initial result.

[My bold.]

I still don't get the time travel part of all this, but the fact (apparently) that we still don't know all there is to be learned about our universe isn't a surprise at all (and an idea I'm confident Albert Einstein himself would have agreed with).

Second Try At Breaking Universal Speed Limit

Those not-so-wacky boys (and, presumably, girls) at CERN are going to repeat the experiment they announced last month. The speed of light was apparently exceeded by the charged neutrinos released in a comparatively lengthy stream by the CERN experimenters, so a slightly different format (two short bursts released separately over a measured time period) will be used this time to test for that outcome specifically.

The maths are all well beyond my fuzzy calculations (fuzzy, math; it's a math funny :)), but this seems to me a most honest and transparent method to check their earlier results. I may not understand the process, but it's obvious even to a mathematical ignoramus like me just how profound a change in humanity's supposed understanding of our universe is potentially put to the question here.

Exciting stuff.

h/t: Instapundit

It Isn't Just For Gun Control

..., now socialist production planning is for farming too. RTWT for yet another example of the tactic say the same thing in a slightly different application approach to government (mis)management.

Comes in for a good kicking in the comments too, which Watts Up With That is usually good for in these circumstances.

A "Natural" Selection For Benevolent AI?

Via Labrat at Atomic Nerds comes notice of this intriguing result

Ever since Cicero's De Natura Deorum ii.34., humans have been intrigued by the origin and mechanisms underlying complexity in nature. Darwin suggested that adaptation and complexity could evolve by natural selection acting successively on numerous small, heritable modifications. But is this enough? Here, we describe selected studies of experimental evolution with robots to illustrate how the process of natural selection can lead to the evolution of complex traits such as adaptive behaviours. Just a few hundred generations of selection are sufficient to allow robots to evolve collision-free movement, homing, sophisticated predator versus prey strategies, coadaptation of brains and bodies, cooperation, and even altruism. In all cases this occurred via selection in robots controlled by a simple neural network, which mutated randomly.

PLoS Biology: Evolution of Adaptive Behaviour in Robots by Means of Darwinian Selection

[My bold]

Not a complete solution, of course, but evidence that a desired trait (like, apparently, an altruistic attitude toward a given group or class of recipient) can be developed as part of the general development process. Injecting a measure of periodic order into the selection process would seem to be a necessary next step, and we have an example of just such a process ready to hand.

Assuming the fundamentally Darwinian processes and techniques (reinforce the desired results, ruthlessly cull the undesirable ones as they first evidence themselves in a given individual example) utilised in the selective development of canine and other animal breeds will in fact more-or-less directly apply to nascent robotic and artificial intelligences, then I think attention should soon be paid to developing a logically consistent thought process (a self-reinforcing, circular logic construct) that is analogous to that underlying a human moral code. One that does not rely on any external justification. Something along the lines of, good thought/action causes the least harm to the greatest number of humans; the most benefit to the greatest number of humans is good thought/action.

Yet to be resolved still is the desired definition of "harm" and "benefit" within a range of contextual settings, but I think this research gives increased hope for a practical process to be developed. Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nick Bostrom are both looking at this very problem, but I confess I don't make much effort to keep up with their (or other's) work, as much of the detail is lost on me once things get anywhere near their respective levels of thought.

So, not an answer as such, but perhaps the beginings of developing a process whereby to eventually arrive at one.