Fort Sumter, Bolivia?

Is this how civil war begins?

Should hostilities escalate between the Morales government and the breakaway districts, just how long will it take other interests in the American southern hemisphere to decide that their national (or other) interests require them to intervene on the behalf of one side or the other? Let that situation develop sufficiently and we'll all find out just how moribund the US government (and it's multitudinous driving interests) thinks the Monroe Doctrine really is.

You think there were protests over the Iraq Campaign? Let US military forces get directly involved in combat as part of this and prepare yourself for serious violence across much of the country.

Now would be a good time to upgrade that SHTF plan and disaster kit. If this doesn't settle down very quickly, next summer could be real interesting indeed.

Presuming events continue to escalate, along about next Tuesday every Latin-oriented special interest group in the US will begin using this situation as a means for advancing whatever position they favor, and against the position of virtually every other competing group inside - and likely outside as well - of the country. Late that same afternoon, we can expect virtually every other special interest group with it's hand out to Uncle Sam to make it's position known as well.

Since criminal gangs are largely divided along racial/ethnic lines of support (if less strictly so as regards membership), we can also expect them to "contribute" to the action in their own traditional fashion. {There is nothing racist about that statement either. They're criminals; what activities are criminals traditionally associated with by the general population?}

Further to that, criminal gangs eventually become organised as competition to more orthodox government as well as to other gangs. It is only to be expected that any resulting violence here in the US will likely spread quite rapidly beyond those areas presently identified as "ethnic" or "gang territory" because of this.

I recently made the point that oil isn't a commodity that any one country can deny sale of to any particular other country, and that no country was likely to stop selling it's oil entirely in order to achieve such a result on it's own.

This situation has the potential to create "the exception that proves the rule".

If Venezuela and Brazil both get drawn into the fighting, then most of the oil exportation from South America becomes a strategic target for - well, almost everybody, almost everywhere. Added to that is the likely-seeming expansion of hostilities to include the Panama Canal Zone ... which draws China into the "purely regional issue". How likely is it that oil shippers will risk their vessels in such an environment?

On the other hand, common sense could break out all over and we can all drift back to sleep again.

You'll pardon me for now, I'm sure; I have lists to check and such like.

UPDATE: Gateway Pundit has informative further coverage of this so-far largely ignored situation. More here