Saturday, April 20, 2013

I Said It, I'll Own It

Eric S. Raymond has a post up about the Boston Marathon Bombing suspects being identified in which he notes certain Shi'a Islam-specific (well, more so than is the rule with Sunni muslims) facts about the two brothers.  Well down the comment thread (#31 or so, I think) I point out the existence of alternative facts being possibly more important/relevant than is the shared religious background being indicative of Iranian influence/involvement in the terror attack the two men carried out.

I said:
As long as we’re speculating on possible connections/ramifications regarding these two, I think the very fact their family hails from Chechnya is itself potentially of much greater concern than a possible Shi’a Islam connection with Iran.
Recent history shows that Chechen (insert your euphemism of choice here – I’m going with the generic “gangs”) have proven themselves ruthless and effective at combating organized state forces in Russia (and the previous iteration as USSR) in both straight up military conflict and in “direct action” (Beslan, etc). If Chechen gangs have begun to take up the notion that the US is an opportunity for them to advance their ideological (or simply criminal) strategy, then we may be in for a rude comeuppance indeed. The statement-making examples of terrorism we in this country have experienced have all been contrived as unique acts; “professional” (as in this is how the members make their living) ideological killers (as opposed to outright crime gangs of limited scope and predictable operation) with organization and experience are entirely beyond the scope of American law enforcement organization and training.
We’ve already seen posse comitatus go out the window (only drug-related police actions are allowed the direct involvement of .mil assets afaik – I doubt Boston PD owned all those Blackhawks zooming the Common and environs earlier today), the citizenry having their 4th Amendment rights arbitrarily revoked and all the rest the people of that part of Mass. experienced from their government these last few days. Imagine the reaction to an actual organized, experienced and equipped group carrying out an actual strategy to defeat Russian military success in Chechnya from here in the US. That would seem no more implausible than turning airliners into autonomous cruise missiles.
It’s too easy to get all wrapped around the obvious axle of a shared religious connection and thereby ignore the other also likely-seeming possibilities this event offers.

Also see the follow up comment by "Bryant" four entries after my initial comment; he provides several links that clear up the (that would be my ) confusion on the posse comitatus issue I mention.

Just to be clear; I think we are speculating about issues this event raises that there simply hasn't been time for any investigation to have more than superficially looked into yet.  The focus to this point has been on capturing (or otherwise "apprehending")  the two men.  While esr makes an interesting (and perfectly valid) observation, I suggest we would all do well to let those in a position to ascertain an answer have the time to ask the necessary questions. 

Which hopefully won't focus only on the easy and obvious possibilities.

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