Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Progress's Progression

Ray Kurzweil's theory on the exponential nature of technological progress receives a shallow but even-handed review in the NY Times. However, the Grey Lady missed an opportunity to illustrate how the Technological Singularity is achieved. At least part of the reason so many people have difficulty accepting the concept of a singularity is that they can't imagine how we get to such an extreme capability from our present level of knowledge. The boys and girls at Duke University provide an excellent show-and-tell example.

As our knowledge base grows and our increased comprehension permits us to achieve ever greater technological achievements, the Singularity will continue to recede into our technological future to a certain extent. To prevent being personally overwhelmed by the exponential nature of that advance, we each need to attempt to incorporate into our daily lives whichever of the advances developed we are able to. The dis-advantage of exponential change is the steadily accelerating rate at which further change occurs. If you take too long to "upgrade", you may not be able to take advantage of what follows.

Via Instapundit.

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