Strategic Fail

I wrote this in response to something famed SF/AH author Stephen Michael Stirling posted on Facebook and wanted to archive it here:

Maajid Nawaz has been making the point (most recently on his appearance on Tim Pool IRL, combine that with his name to find the relevant episode) that the fighting in Ukraine is becoming a radical activist factory on a scale at least equal to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Given the percentage of Islamic practitioners in modern European countries (he cites France as being +10% for instance, with similar numbers for Britain), how many of these "freedom fighters" flocking to Ukraine for experience will reappear in their home countries (or someone else's) once the active phase of the current combat ends (or only begins to taper off militarily)?

This isn't only an "Islamic" problem either; see the video of Azov Bge personnel dipping their rifle ammo into pork lard "for the Chechen Muslims". How does one go about making sure the people one is shooting at amongst all of the other "Russians" are of a specific religion?

That aside, a significant percentage of these people can be expected to survive combat and return - further radicalized, regardless of ideology - to "continue the fight" with whoever happens to be available to fight with at home.

Any strategy which doesn't actively take this circumstance into account while the fighting is on-going is a failed strategy.