Wednesday, March 16, 2016

The Evitability Of Donald Trump

So, most of my FB feed is testing there hand (and credibility) at calling the election based on reported results and variably shaky math; here's my offering (and there will be no math here, I promise) (I'd say "So vote for me", but I'm concerned some really low information voter actually might).

As of today, 16 March, 2016, according to Real Clear Politics Trump has a total of 629 delegates (including Carson's 8), Cruz has 396 (which I assume already includes Fiorina's 1), Rubio has 168, and Kasich has 138, which combines to more than half of the total number of delegates available.

IF Ted Cruz can convince Marco Rubio to pledge his delegates to him in exchange for Cruz nominating Rubio to fill the open Supreme Court position, AND convince Kasich to pledge his delegates to Cruz in exchange for the position of VP, THEN Ted Cruz has 702 delegates to Trump's 629 and a very interesting bargaining position.

In exchange for Trump throwing his support (and his delegates) behind a Cruz/Kasich ticket on the first convention ballot, Cruz offers The Donald the position of Councilor-to-the-President and Ambassador Plenipotentiary (either of which is a good, solid, insider-power-broker position).  As CttP, Trump is an active participant in Cabinet meetings at the Presidents discretion and serves as Cruz's direct representative overseeing such national interest efforts as hardening the national electrical grid infrastructure or maintaining the nations interstate highway system and bridges for example (all matters of legitimate federal concern and projects that Trump has no little degree of practical experience with).  As Ambassador Plenipotentiary, Trump serves as the President's personal envoy to foreign governments and individuals.  I rather imagine the "smoke filled room" conversation between Cruz and Trump might go something like this:

Look Donald, I need you to kick ass and take names on these national infrastructure projects so I can dump specific instructions on the cabinet officers responsible for actually running the works projects.  At the same time, I'm occasionally going to want to send you to some foreign capitol to give them a healthy dose of the heebie jeebies.  That way, when I come along a bit later and tell them, "look, fellas, it doesn't have to be that way, you know" they'll be a lot more likely to see the advantages of whatever I throw down on the table at them, cause let's face it, you've got the "scary mofo" ju-ju hands down.  Take the wife along; there'll be plenty of opportunities to keep her sweet with some power shopping afterwards.  You occasionally go throw a scare into the chinks, russkis and whoever else jumps ugly, so I can come along after and get us what we really want.  That is the art of the deal, right?

Using today's numbers, that gives Cruz 1,331 delegates, which is more than enough to secure the nomination on the first ballot with no convention jiggery pokery from the GOP good ol' boys needed.

This also sets up a general election campaign that looks something like this:

1. Carly Fiorina earns her cabinet appointment by cutting the feminist legs out from under the Hillary campaign and savages Democratic party campaign positions and statements savagely.

2. Marco Rubio keeps the GOPe in line and supportive-ish (and he and Cruz as sitting Senators do whatever deals need be done to keep that Supreme Court appointment "open") and savages Democratic party campaign positions and statements savagely.

3. John Kasich gets a new wardrobe for the traditional VP international funeral gig, as well as bones up on space policy in a "private space access" economy, and savages Democratic party campaign positions and statements savagely.

4. Donald Trump spouts the Cruz/Kasich campaign positions ruthlessly, tosses the occasional (and thoroughly vetted-in-secret-in-advance) foreign policy knee-wobbler to the media, and savages Democratic party positions and statements savagely.

5. Ted Cruz campaigns in a statesman-like, generous and positive manner, always taking the high road on any policy dispute with the other party's positions and campaign statements, interspersed with content-free but encouraging statements regarding foreign policy.

See?  No math (shut up back there, addition is not "math"), no charts, no graphs; just a simple narrative explanation that has as good a chance of meeting reality as most members of Congress ever seem to, so it has that going for it.

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