Ike!

Noon having well and truly cracked, and being near to drowning in any case, I decided to make the commitment and get up out of bed. I've now had some coffee and a quick troll around some of the internet, and even a brief trip outdoors, and can report that I am in fact still upright and breathing on my own. As standards go, that's my personal measure for basic fitness. As long as I achieve that, how bad can things really be?

First off, a look at the most recent storm track map has Ike north of Huntsville - maybe up to Crockett (as near as I can tell) - and continuing on it's projected path in the general direction of Mt. Vernon, TX, at which point it's expected to hook right and head for Hoosierland (see this page for a map by counties of E. Texas). So, pretty much as expected there.

I've gone through a couple hurricanes before (one of them aboard the old USS Midway in 1972 - that one right through the worst effects of a major typhoon in the relatively shallow waters off the coast of some SE Asian country). My point being that I do have some personal experience with extreme weather. As Ike approaches the wind speed should increase, but as the storm continues to transit land it's overall severity should continue to decrease. It's a tough judgement call, but I'm beginning to suspect that sustained winds in the 50 to 60 mph range are the most likely possibility for us in the Tyler area. There is, of course, this brief National Hurricane Center guidance to counter any urge toward relaxation:

ALTHOUGH IKE IS SPINNING DOWN AS A HURRICANE IN TERMS OF MAXIMUM WINDS…UNFORTUNATELY…ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS…WESTERN LOUISIANA…AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT…AS WILL CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

It's beginning to feel like an old Morton Salt ad around here.

As you can also no doubt tell, TXU has been doing a sterling job so far also. And on that note, I will post this and update later in the evening.

Update: It is now later. Looking at the most recent storm track map it seems Ike weakened even faster than anticipated which, I speculate, caused it to veer East earlier than anticipated. In the event, the storm passed to the East of Tyler rather than to the West which caused the windblown rain to quarter around the sky quite rapidly. Within the space of perhaps 45 minutes the rain went from a strong ESE direction to virtually due West. Fortunately the wind velocity dropped along with the directional change so electricity wasn't effected for more than a couple of brief occasions during the afternoon.

In any case, the storm front is well past Tyler and, at this point, I'm not at all certain Tam and Roberta X will even notice Ike's arrival in their neighborhood late tomorrow afternoon or early evening.

Vageries Of The Weather

It's always a bit hard to determine with any exactitude, but I suspect the many thousands who elected to "stand their ground" on Galveston Island would agree that Hurricane Ike has well and truly come ashore right about now.

Not that they'll have much attention to spare for such niceties of description. The storm surge and rising tide will have seen to it that they will have been doing very well indeed to still have their heads mostly above water by this point in the proceedings. See here for why and scroll down for more.

Here in Tyler (visualise basically a straight line drawn between Dallas, TX and Shreveport, LA on a map and Tyler is almost exactly halfway in-between the two along I-20), the wind is only occasionally gusting with upper winds moving bands of cloud across the moonlit night sky at a clearly visible pace. No rain as of yet. As can be seen from this NOAA storm track map, it seems the eye of the by-then probably very strong Tropical Storm Ike will pass just barely to the west of Tyler about 2PM today. Winds 65 gusting 75 with a possible six to eight inches of rain is nothing to make light of, but the speed of travel Ike is expected to develop as it progresses inland has the storm essentially clearing this portion of E. Texas by midnight or so Saturday night.

I expect electrical power will go out at some point during the morning and can only hope TXU (my electrical service provider) will be able to have it restored reasonably quickly. Their past performance here within the city limits has been quite good in this regard so chances seem good at this point. Not to worry, I have the latest offerings from Steve Stirling and Neal Stephenson to wend away the entirely-too-windy-and-rainy daylight hours with and an ample supply of battery powered reading light(s) as well.

Given the dietary restrictions my diabetes imposes upon me I've spent the last couple hours baking a week's worth of chicken and slicing it up for sandwiches. Not that I'm in even the remotest proximity to it you understand, but starvation isn't going to be a concern whatever Ike still has to offer. 3 dozen bottles of diet iced tea and several quarts of Crystal Light should keep the inside of me as well hydrated as the outside looks to get. So, I'm adequately well fed, well watered and (need I even say it?) more than adequately well armed. Presuming the entire building doesn't head for Oz (the kitties will not like that), the weekend promises to be pleasantly adventurous (you know, it's actually you involved, but the really deep shit part is still comfortably off in the distance - maybe you can see it if you squint real hard).

I hope the ladies of Roseholme Cottage will think kindly of me when Ike gives them a gentle (if still sloppily wet) kiss the following afternoon. :)

A Teasing Zephyr

This one's for Mr. FM who seems easily excited of late.

His upper lip may have developed a bit of a quiver, but the rest of him seems up to his usual standard (if his recent declaration is any judge).

Self-deprecating, reserved enthusiasm's; the mark of a true Englishman, you know.



Thanks to patriotroom.com for the visual image.

Tempting Fate

I wonder if Gov. Palin and her family aren't pushing their luck just a bit?

Specifically, while I don't doubt young Levi Johnston's love for Bristol Palin, she is still only 17 years old. By making them both prominently part of the family's public appearances, to include the convention stage last night, both the Governor herself and Senator McCain have done all that could reasonably be expected to show acceptance of the fait accompli presented to all by Levi and Bristol. Being that Todd Palin hasn't already shown him the first half of last season's race course yet, it appears the family truly has accepted events and have determined to pursue the positive potential inherent to Bristol's pregnancy.

Being a dad myself, I'm not certain how well I'd have done presented with similar circumstance.

That all said, is anyone giving odds as to how long we will have to wait 'till some Democrat operative seeks to have young Levi prosecuted for statutory rape? Come to that, and given the opinion most of the old line Alaskan Republicans have for Gov. Palin, I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them try the same stunt.

Politics is a nasty business at the best of times. The present political climate in the US makes such a slimy tactic seem almost inevitable somehow instead of beyond the pale. It may wind up being both.

Gov. Palin strikes me as politically savvy, certainly Sen. McCain is. It seems incomprehensible that they both wouldn't have sought legal advice on this very possibility long since. Even so, the Democrat purpose is just as well served by a very public accusation and arrest of young Mr. Johnston as it is by a successful prosecution. Ultimate vindication will be politically irrelevant so long as it occurs no sooner than November 6th.

I hope my suspicions prove overly pessimistic about this. I keep returning to Saul Alinsky's lesson on means and ends though.

The Restoration of Paris

Let's just see what we've got:

Paris Whitney Hilton (born February 17, 1981) is an American celebutante, television personality, actress, singer, model, and businesswoman.

She is known for her appearance on the television series The Simple Life, her several minor film roles (most notably her role in the horror film House of Wax in 2005), her 2004 tongue-in-cheek autobiography,[2] her 2006 album Paris, her work in modeling, and her appearance in a sex tape in 2003. As a result of several legal incidents, Hilton also served a widely publicized sentence in a Los Angeles County jail facility in 2007.

Alright.

Hilton has worked as a model, actress, musician, and engaged in sometime business pursuits.[8] According to Forbes Magazine, she earned approximately $2 million in 2003–2004,[9] $6.5 million in 2004–2005,[10] and $7 million in 2005–2006.

While I doubt she's managed to retain even as much as 5% of all that in an investment or annuity account of any description, I don't think Miss Hilton has anything to be embarrassed about in any of that. And then, there is this justly famous bit of video.

All in all, something to work with here, I think.

Given her remarkable history of reciprocating, and occasionally betraying, the trust of others, I suspect Miss Hilton wouldn't disagree with the contention that society is comprised of an extensive network of often-contradictory trust relationships. Unlike those of us not recipient to a famous last name, she has very publicly agreed to pursue reputation into the often demeaning and shallow side-track of celebrity. I say pursue because she could have chosen to simply stay home on each occasion instead.

That said, when you grow up "knowing" that others are attracted to you (or, as you painfully learn eventually, at least to your name), then a certain amount of responsibility for what follows also lies with those who profit in some fashion from your actions and ... how shall I put this ... less well thought-out decisions? We are each of us encouraged to do things by motivating influences in our lives. One aspect of celebrity, surprisingly well illustrated on the HBO program Entourage btw, is that of the effect on the celebrity's decision-making process by those trusted with intimate access to the celebrity (a recurring theme in the 2006 film Bottoms Up also). All of whom, it should be noted, receive some form of personal gain as a result of the celebrity trust relationship.

Always.

People of reputation, on the other hand, aren't necessarily famous in their own right. Very often the work, or other accomplishment, that they have performed is what's widely noted. Many people know the names Watson and Crick for example, but virtually everybody has at least heard of DNA. How many of them associate the former with the latter, I wonder? People of celebrity, however, are largely the product of the opinions of others, whatever the value of their actual accomplishments might prove to be. And, has been infamously noted long before this, opinions are as prevalent as the fundaments they sit upon (and just as subject to social acceptability it often seems). Of relevance to Miss Hilton is that she now finds her reputation judged as an aspect of her celebrity.

In her recent response to use of her image in a McCain For President video, Paris herself shows a flawed but insightful flash of a possible mechanism to repair her public image and reputation.

I say flawed for a couple of reasons. First, because it's obvious she was unable to sufficiently physically train to meet the visual requirements her choice of wardrobe and dialog demanded. Which is not to say she's fat, because she absolutely isn't. She simply wasn't as physically fit as that particular wardrobe choice required for an on-camera appearance, that's all. She would have been better advised to appear in a stylish cocktail dress or, under appropriate (read: more expensive) lighting in a night shot, in an evening gown that displayed her legs and skin tone to advantage instead. Either choice would have worked just as well with the written dialog, and without breaking the viewer's suspension of disbelief from the "I'm also hot!" message.

Second, while the serious political message was well crafted and delivered, the minor disharmony between the visual and audio celebrity sub-text detracted from any possible serious response the video - not to mention Miss Hilton herself - might otherwise have garnered. It's here that her less savory public history also detracted from any possible serious response to her efforts to influence the political climate. Simply put, her celebrity served as both cause for her having made the video at all and instant nullification of her otherwise acceptable political compromise message (however tongue-in-cheek it may have been intended to be) (which is not an obvious given, based upon the merits of the message itself).

There is a strategic opportunity present in all of this, both to renovate Paris Hilton's public personae and make a hopefully-less-than-minor contribution to that aforementioned annuity fund.

One of the long-time staples of the cable TV channels was the program Connections presented by historian and author James Burke. Now, imagine a program examining the historical and current development of a concept, that further examines the future development possibilities and their impact on society, presented as part of the personal continuing education from her GED, by one Paris Hilton.

Call it Haught Thot (delivered in as snootily upper-class a British accent as can be hired).

The general theme of the program is to present Miss Hilton as a role model for the unorthodox education of the individual. Playing on the more unfortunate public aspects of her celebrity will be an ongoing programmatic theme, as will her on-camera failures to get things correct (to the extent these spontaneously happen during the course of recording an episode - think "out takes" as a deliberate part of the program narrative). She will ultimately get it right, of course, and "show her work" to the camera while doing so, upon occasion.

Such a program doesn't have to concentrate solely on technological developments, of course, but it should stick as strictly as possible to those topics that can be clearly documented and displayed in graphic fashion on both a television screen and computer monitor. Given Miss Hilton's demonstrated skill with viral video, that too should be a deliberate market for the program's content. Between these two principal targets, television (either broadcast or cable) and viral video (which offers it's own revenue potential), I believe the two objectives of this exercise can be achieved, quite possibly for a number of campaigns (aka: programming seasons).

The arrival of Gov. Sarah Palin on the US national political scene is also going to have the effect of "raising the bar" as it were when it comes to measuring the accomplishments of other (particularly female) objects of public interest, I believe. To the extent such proves to be the case, this can be turned to Miss Hilton's personal advantage by emphasising the professional responsibility and intellectual development her researching the program's content represents. Harking back to the trust issue from earlier in this treatise, she would have to be believably seen to be actually doing the intellectual heavy lifting at various points during the programing season(s).

One possibility for achieving this result would be presenting these as a version of test which she has to pass. Involving the program's contracted academic researchers working with her on camera is yet another mechanism for convincing the audience of her actual trustworthiness. There are other possibilities, of course, probably better too, but the issue of being perceived as trustworthy is extremely important, both for the program's potential success with the audience as entertainment, and it's financial success as a marketing platform for potential advertisers and sponsors.

However much in jest she may have been at the time, Miss Hilton made specific reference to her candidacy for the office of President in her video. Miss Hilton doesn't yet qualify for that office due to her tender years of course, but Gov. Palin's example makes less of a joke of Miss Hilton's brash claim than was percieved to be the case following her video's first release. If Miss Hilton is willing to fully commit to transforming her celebrity into reputation, that is.

While it seems extremely unlikely to me that Miss Hilton will ever seriously consider pursuing that or any other elective office, making the very thought of her doing so into something other than a sick joke doesn't seem at all unworthy of the effort required either. Respect has a little recognised effect of extending benefit to those not directly the cause for it's expression. Any sports fan implicitly knows this and experiences it through public association with the athlete or team in some fashion. I find something intrinsicly admirable in the idea of Paris Hilton using her celebrity to develop herself into something other than a public spectacle and embarrassment. The respect she would earn as a result would alter the status quo of American society in some small way all on it's own, and possibly in some totally unpredictable fashion through the shared benefit effect referenced earlier.

There must have been less likely sources of inspiration to self-improvement over the course of human history, I suppose.

Finally, I hope this little intellectual exercise in examining various applications of the strategic principle of individual positional advancement will prove as useful to someone else as thinking it through has proven to be for me. Paris Hilton is not the only one going through life with a GED. Learning has always been as much a product of my pursuit of my own intellectual interests as it has been the result of some other's deliberate efforts to instruct me.

I hope Miss Hilton finds her path to personal fulfillment. Maybe the famously byzantine connections of the Internet will allow this thought experiment some measure of influence in her doing so (though I personally doubt it - I can't imagine the extent of searching necessary for someone of her degree of celebrity to discover this effort via Google). I have more realistic hopes that I can find application for what I've learned from writing it a good deal closer to home than that though.

If I do, I'll have exceeded my expectations, which is good.

Now, That's Funny ...

..., I don't care who you are.

Or aren't.

There's no way the campaign will even acknowledge this bit of synchronicity, but that doesn't stop the rest of us from having a good laugh.

And then there's this. Anything else, maybe, but the left will never forgive her for this:

Rigel Kent Says:

Palin’s smart, tough, capable, gorgeous and a red head?

My God, she’s a Heinlein character come to life.

I think I might just have to vote for McCain now.

August 30th, 2008 at 12:33 am

Bill Ayers may get called out of retirement after a few weeks more of this.

And that's not funny.

Thanks to Rand Simberg and TamaraK for the much needed good laugh.

Update: I haven't had to experience it as of yet, but one thing I'm not looking forward to is all the " ...Palin comparison." smarminess from the punditry class over the next couple months. The novelty will wear off and people will begin to take note of the lady herself as time goes by, but 'till then ...

One other observation. Todd Palin must have the iron resolve and self control of an actual saint. Hosting tea party's and the like is all good for a laugh, but I'd have long since consigned some talking head to a lifetime of dental treatments via a proctologist. 'Yo, Chris, Keith, I'm just sayin' is all.

Update Deux (8/31): See what I mean?

Although, I have to say, this isn't too bad an example of what I'm talking about. At least this blogger stuck to published facts and sources to illustrate his admittedly biased viewpoint. Well, sort of ... Nobody looks quite that good with a real case of bed head. Which also ought to be regarded as "Praising with faint damns" ought'nt it?

Update Tres (9/01): See! See!?! See what I'm talkin' about?

This can't end soon enough.

McCain/Palin

Hm.

Well, the guy never carried much of a tan anyway.

I'm certain the Democrats will wear this one out fairly quickly. Watching the rest of the .gov femmes have serial conniptions ought to provide at least several months of entertainment, though. Query: if Nancy Pelosi's face splitttsss* during a televised speech, would anybody not watching closely actually notice?

All I can say is, Thank Ghu at least somebody running for national office has some actual executive branch-type experience going into the race.



*Sorry, couldn't resist the now-antiquated Bill Cosby reference (a bit from the performance titled Fatherhood, as I recall).

Why I'm a blogger and not a reporter

I suppose most people are at least generally aware of the recent confrontation instigated by Alex Jones with Hot Air blogger and sometime Fox News reporter/commentator Michele Malkin yesterday in Denver, CO; see here for a written report by Charles Martin of events from one participants perspective and here for a largely unedited video recording of the incident by Stephen Greene (aka VodkaPundit) who happened to be on-scene working as a Pajamas Media reporter as events unfolded.

While I am certain that Alex Jones chose the tactic he did because Michele Malkin is a 5' nuthin' Filipina and the living incarnation of the definition "petite", and that Alex Jones would never, for any reason, even consider attempting something similar involving myself (being that I am the diametric opposite of said definition) as the object of his invective-laden assault, I still feel it incumbent upon me to note that, were he ever to do so here in Texas - the state we both reside in, I absolutely would shoot him DRT.

And, I fully understand that a Lone Star version of Denver's Smirky Mc DoNut, as described briefly in Mr. Martin's report, would no doubt be the first to insist I accept his offer of accommodation as a guest of the Governor immediately thereafter.

We who go to all the trouble to obtain a license to carry a concealed firearm do so for nearly as many reasons as there are number of us, but one of the most common is to generally accept a greater share of responsibility for our own security and safety. I submit to all and sundry that the behavior exhibited by Alex Jones in the PJM video is a classic example of "threatened and in fear for my life" as anyone might hope not to ever personally experience.

I believe that about the second time he directed his assaultive behavior in such a close, in-your-face fashion, and had he done so to me in a similarly aroused mob atmosphere, I'd have killed him without a moments hesitation.

Which causes me to re-raise a question I briefly skirted about with Kevin Baker some months ago; to what extent does our recreational shooting training influence our behavior in an actual defensive gunfight situation?

Using the PJM video as a reference, at what point in the course of events would you consider the self-defense requirement to have been met (if at all) and thereby feel justified in shooting the attacker? No fair cheating and using Michele Malkin's unarmed action as a guide; this question is for concealed carry license holders, presumed to be subject to a near-identical assault, in a state that recognises their license and thus can be presumed to be armed at the time.

I bring this topic up because I believe that we all run an under-appreciated risk of unnecessary legal jeopardy by not periodically including some form of specifically "defensive shooting"-oriented training and/or regular practice session as a part of our normal shooting experience. My problem is, I'm not fully confident what such a regimen ought to realistically (as well as legalistically) consist of.

I am certain that reliance upon the tactics and techniques inherent to Steel Challenge, IDPA and the like probably would offer as much opportunity for a potential prosecutor as it would my defender.

Here in Texas (and I'm willing to bet this is common in other states, too) a private citizen is entitled to defend his life and (with certain stipulations) his property from direct attack. But only to the point of safeguarding said life and property, wherein lies the rub.

A defensive shooting training exercise would have to explicitly include a mechanism for breaking direct contact with an attacker (never mind the old "best defense ..." chestnut) in order for such a gunfight to be consistent with a defensive action. I submit that the shooting disciplines I previously cited teach the diametric opposite of such a principle. Please understand, there's nothing wrong with that in it's own context, until an attorney is using it to demonstrate your willful disregard for the life of the decedent and why the jury should award the plaintiff 110% of everything you will ever earn in perpetuity. In that circumstance, maybe a defense attorney could make a telling counter-argument to a jury out of a training regimen that specifically includes dis-engaging from attack if safely possible for you to attempt. Being able to question witnesses as to your training in and practice of such a defensive discipline might usefully improve your image with a jury as well.

The possibility of being able to actually train not to shoot idiots like Alex Jones as part of an effective "combined arms" philosophy to personal concealed carry seems useful to me also. The superior strategist is one who defeats an enemy's attack at the least cost to himself.

Any thoughts ... ?

Update (9/01): Charles Johnson's Little Green Footballs site has a post up by "Zombie" regarding yet another recent near-riot in Denver last week. In addition to the apparent propaganda effort made by the Rocky Mountain News to spin this minor side-show to an equally minor arrest, there's the question of how the police handled the threatening crowd scenario as opposed to what occurred in the separate incident involving Michele Malkin.

For better or worse, I believe that this sort of organised, structured and well-practiced behavior is more than likely going to be the standard of conduct to which all individuals forced into a similar circumstance will be compared. The stunning disparity between a department of trained professionals degree of resources and training to that of virtually any individual not withstanding, I expect the presence of firearms and a state license to carry same will be the over-riding factors in most people's minds when it comes to assessing the degree of civil guilt and/or responsibility for a given outcome.

We shooters with concealed carry licenses need to better prepare ourselves for the full range of responsibility that accompanies the personal protection we seek to secure for ourselves. Specifically, to include surviving intact the legal fight that will almost inevitably follow any gun fight.

A pyrrhic victory isn't. Don't build a strategy around such an obvious point of failure.

Instant Meme

I have often linked to Kevin Baker in the past and expect to do so in future. This time, I quote him in full:

Freudian Slip?
Former Texas Rep. Charlie Wilson -- yes, that Charlie Wilson -- was speaking at an anti-war rally when he, um, flubbed a line:
"We should be led by Osama bin Laden," he said, then quickly corrected himself. "I mean Obama and Biden."
Osama bin Laden, Obama and Biden, hey, it's a mistake anybody could make.

And will keep making all the way 'till election day.

Obama bin Biden 2008!

I'm suddenly feeling a little less sick to my stomach over this year's election.

From Real Clear Politics via Glenn

This one needs to be spread far and wide.

A couple quick clicks later, I found this at professional writer James Hudnall's blog:

Quote of the Day
“We should be led by Osama bin Laden,” he said, then quickly corrected himself. “I mean Obama and Biden.”

Charlie Wilson (of that bogus Tom Hanks movie fame)

Gosh, we have a new name for the hope team. Obama bin Biden : Hope and Change for the Republican Party’s fortunes.

Somewhere between the two, I think we've found the T-shirt for this years political season:

OBAMA bin BIDEN 2008
Hope and Change
(for the Republican Party)

Kevin? Hud? Who can get a Zazzle deal struck first?

I'm a 2XL BTW.

:)

Update: So, Hud went with the T-Shirt while Kevin opted for the bumpersticker.

Now, if we can only keep that utter nanger Nancy Pelosi talking for a couple more months there's a quite reasonable chance for McCain to inherit an evenly divided legislature too.

In the present circumstance, political gridlock is good.

... and speaking of gas,

Brian Wang has an intriguing post on a new bio-diesel process at Next Big Future. The newly formed Ever Cat Fuels company has begun construction on a bio-diesel plant that seems a marked improvement over the established process.

In a comment to Brian's post I said:

The Ever Cat website specifically states that the process does not "require a large footprint". I wonder how scalable this is in the other direction - to the 20 to 30 gallon/batch range say? That's the sort of application that would bring this development into widespread use the quickest, I suspect. Half a dozen neighbors contributing the "components" for a percentage share of the result? I think I'll contact Mr. Wendorf at Ever Cat and enquire ...

I wrote Mr. Dave Wendorf at the Ever Cat-provided e-mail link and will post any response I recieve.