Chyna Balloon

 On the China balloon thing; this event strikes me as being a "proof of concept" demonstration of lighter-than-air lifting body control technology development. Granted a classical balloon isn't at all "cutting edge" lifting body design, but the control software and hardware to tack and jibe to deliberately maneuver the balloon into and across the prevailing wind is (tacking and jibing a vessel is well understood conceptually; doing so autonomously is less so). This strikes me as being the most easily achievable means of extending the overhead observation time window over a given geographic region.

As to not shooting it down over land, while it's always possible the Chinese chose to just bleed off hydrogen from the balloon to power an on-board generator, the Chinese space program has almost certainly acquired/developed "nuclear battery" technology (which is technically neither; radioactive material creating heat as a by-product of its decay rate and converting that heat directly into electricity isn't nearly as easy to say though and is technology that is at least as old as Voyager 1) and would likely regard this as a good test platform for their latest development efforts in that technology. Having some hunter/hiker find one of those cracked open on the ground somewhere is not an eventuality to casually take a risk over with the open ocean off America's coastline being such a ready-to-hand option instead. It should be noted that the USN has extensive undersea recovery technology immediately at hand along the US eastern seaboard. As long as the device came down on the US continental shelf (and since the shoot down was filmable from land this seems virtually certain), recovering objects from less than 100 fathoms depth isn't all that technologically challenging for a well-enough heeled private citizen these days (Hello James Cameron!). Remember that Challenger went down well beyond the depths to be expected from this shoot down and that wreckage was closely examined in situ as well as partially recovered back onto land.

The more interesting question to me is, how did the Chinese receive whatever data was collected by the device? What did the (alleged!) surveillance device record, and to what did it transmit that data (in what spectrum?)? All of this can be ascertained from any wreckage that is recovered from the sea bed, if only by analysis of the components used in its manufacture.

An interesting event. Mostly not even remotely well reported on. Hopefully that part of things will be improved upon sooner than later.

Magic 8-Ball SEZ

 Staking my claim:

TRUMP/DESANTIS 2024

DESANTIS/GABBARD 2028 & 2032

We need someone at the top of the Executive Branch that has executive branch experience with US space policy ASAP, and Tulsi is gonna need a couple years yet to come to terms with how her party has left her (and so many of the rest of us) behind.

Opportunity Thy Name Is Starbase, Texas

 On March 2nd (yesterday as I write this), Elon Musk published a tweet announcing the creation of Starbase, Texas, a new city. This creates the perfect opportunity for Musk to resolve one of the main objections to his Tesla production goals - where does the electricity to charge all of those vehicles to come from? - by addressing the related question, where does the electricity for a Mars or Lunar colony come from?

It is a matter of black letter law here in Texas that a property of 100 acres or more, that is outside the boundaries of a municipality, can host a gun range whether or not the neighbors agree or a municipality later expands to include said property. Given that 100 acres can be near-as-dammit 1,100 feet wide by 4,000 feet long (yes, I realize an "acre" is a measure of area and thus has no fixed dimension), a 1 thousand yard long rifle range probably won't be more than 500 feet wide (and likely less), which leaves the several hundred feet of land on either side to host a vehicle driving track, about which more later. As a business, an outdoor shooting range can be marginally profitable on its own; as part of an outdoor recreation complex, such a business would likely succeed financially depending on how close it is to the outskirts of a municipality.

Where might Elon Musk put the electric generating plant(s) needed to power the city of Starbase, not to mention all those electric cars and trucks (and other vehicles) he is already building at Tesla? How about under ground, beneath the rifle range? There are various reactor designs from which to choose, especially if you don't want to develop weapons-grade plutonium as a "by product" of your power plant. While a Helium 3 (3He hereafter) fusion reactor seems the currently best option for use here on Earth, molten-salt type fission reactors are possibly a better option for off-planet applications (fusion converts water into energetic particles and thus needs to be regularly replaced; fission re-uses a super-heated liquid to create steam - also reused - to power electric generators, and radiation isn't as big an issue in space) while still providing the rigorous safety technology needed for operation here on Earth (or any other planetary body). How quickly could SpaceX get a Starship onto Luna, to deliver as semi-autonomous (Hello Starlink) as necessary surface mining equipment, with which to extract 3He from the lunar surface? A second Starship vehicle will almost certainly be required to efficiently shuttle 3He to Earth (and eventually Mars) for final processing as reactor fuel, of course. If the molten salt fission reactor works out instead, can 3He be used as fuel in one? If not, how does one go about buying up that much thorium (or whatever)?

Depending upon the reactor design chosen, it should be possible to build ten 100 megawatt power plants below ground under the rifle range/recreation center property suggested above. By distributing the electricity thus generated through a network of tunnels as deeply as necessary beneath the already established right-of-ways underneath existing state and/or federal highways, it becomes possible to add as much as one terawatt of new-generation electricity to the Texas electricity grid from this one property. Extending this model, it becomes possible to add and distribute as many terawatt increases to the US power grid as 100 acre plots of land can be purchased for the purpose. The announcement of Starbase city creates the ideal opportunity for Elon Musk to combine all of his corporate creations in more-or-less direct support of his plans for off-Terra development of human civilization, while fortifying existing human civilization here on Terra.

If Tesla were to buy the One Wheel company along with the Zero Motorcycles company and fold both into the Tesla sales network, these would provide additional products for Tesla to market here on Earth that would seem to also have application on Mars or Luna in either human operated or autonomous mode operations. In the meantime, having one or more tracks upon which to ride rented or privately owned examples of all Tesla products seems to offer a selection of potential businesses to explore, while training future Loonies and Marsmen* as well. By providing Tesla and SpaceX engineers a location(s) to test and develop power generation and transportation technologies, while simultaneously generating a new income stream for both companies, this proposal also potentially solves the needed energy additions and the distribution security concerns to the US (as well as Mexico and Canada if that should become US foreign policy) national power grids (there are three, East, Texas, and West), all from within the existing boundaries of the Texas power grid network.

If it needs to be said, I'd like to work at the rifle range, Elon.

* See Podkayne of Mars by Robert A. Heinlein

Help us, Obi-Won Elon

The Brooking Institute just published an economic analysis of the latest US Presidential election with some interesting findings. Most prominent of these is the division of aggregate wealth (GDP) apportioned over America's 3,142 counties (or county equivalents). Roughly 600-odd counties account for production of 70% of the country's total GDP, with the overwhelming majority of those counties containing the majority of US citizenry and urban development as well. The authors of the article focus on political/electoral analysis, but my interest is on the potential for market growth illustrated by the remaining 30% of current US GDP generated by the other 2,400 or so counties.

As Elon Musk's Starlink project continues through its development beta phase, the financial growth potential in the 2,400 counties identified by the Brookings Institute article linked above strikes me as being most easily realized by a communications network effectively identical to that which Mr. Musk is in the process of building out as you read these words.

As ever, the devil (and the trick) is in the details of how one goes about doing the deed.

As we approach the final decline of the Old Republic (or alternatively, the growth into the New People's Republic of the United States of America), there remains the presence of Opportunity (a basic strategic premise being that all confrontations inherently present opportunity to those who position themselves to take advantage of same). Opportunity to connect, train, support, and develop a network of individuals creating financial gain for themselves and those new or existing businesses they work with in markets that literally do not exist as of yet being my specific point of interest today.

One market few seem to consider is that of financial support, a credit union (I suggest calling it The Spacers Guild Credit Union) that serves anyone working directly or indirectly in support of off-planet enterprises (and thus all potential members of The Spacers Guild), providing traditional banking services as well as legal representation and continuing education (delivery and certification) for its members (and their families) would be both the most prominent and most basic of these, I think. Such a business, being intended to serve an off-Earth clientele from inception, would seem a natural enough fit to service any Luna, Mars, or Asteroid Belt based market should such develop in future.

In the interim, and given that these underfinanced counties are scattered over all 50 states (and one assumes all 5 US Territories as well), they begin with easy access to the already developed regional networks already centered around existing urban markets to draw upon for potential labor and other networked resources. The lower costs of residing and doing business in rural regions (relative to heavily developed urban environments) are probably not as pronounced as is commonly assumed, but nevertheless are a reality to some degree; it is the previous-to-now lack of connectivity that has been the stopper. Which segues neatly into the next opportunity I spy.

One of Elon Musk's other companies, Tesla, has been straining under the great expense required to achieve the final few percentage points of engineering necessary to achieve device autonomy. I suggest a better financial expenditure (and potential societal, or even civilizational rescue) can be achieved by creating the trained people to operate a semi-autonomous technology, linked together through the Starlink network. These people create businesses analogous to over-the-road drivers, who are organized, trained, and certified through the Spacers Guild. The provision of legal counsel, analogous to that provided to firearms owners by the US Law Shield  legal group, would be one of the benefits available to the membership of the Spacers Guild Credit Union (which, like any other credit union in the US, is a member-owned business, so not a bank).

The jobs Starlink trains these Americans (and, fairly quickly I predict, citizens of other countries too) to perform are as mundane and necessary as the truck drivers I associated them with earlier. One purely space oriented job is that of "orbital garbage collector". When you take into account the huge expense invested in putting all of that now-scrap metal (and other substances and materials) that currently create a hazard to navigation and structural integrity to orbital platforms and satellites, just pushing them into atmospheric burn-up doesn't make sense. Instead, contracting with a (presumably large-ish) number of individuals to capture each object (some of which will require many different operators to coordinate their thrust efforts) and drive it into stable orbit at the L-4 point for eventual re-use seems a much more financially useful alternative (side note: the L-4 La Grange Point is also the logical place to build the infrastructure necessary to converting asteroids into products). Supervising the semi-autonomous fleet of logistical transport and delivery vehicles on the Earth's land and liquid surface would be an even more numerous job opportunity.

Enabling the transition of the digital content creators present day efforts into what I have seen described as a Blog 2.0 structure - that is, a more text-driven melding of the heavily visual presentation technology we currently associate with YouTube and the like - that bypasses the gatekeeping efforts of existing technology providers will be a civilizationally transformative outcome all in itself.

There is apparently a vast pool of money just floating in the air over more than 2,400 largely rural counties in the US today (and no one has any idea how great the potential is elsewhere on the planet). Bringing that down to Earth, and expanding it to the edges of our Solar System, is a challenge we humans simply must succeed at ... or quite literally die not trying.

Building Our Soup Bowl*

Recently, Elon Musk announced that SpaceX will begin building "floating superheavy-class spaceports" for its launch and recovery of spacecraft; IOW VTOL aircraft carriers. One presumes these vessels will include repair and re-condition capabilities for Falcon and Starship vehicles as an initial minimum standard, with all that that includes engineering-wise.

It probably shouldn't go without saying that the usual run of blue-water vessel crewing requirements will also be necessary; Captain, bridge watchstanders, communications and radar operators and maintenance workers, both ship and flight deck engineering and maintenance personnel, culinary and other human support crew ... it's a long list of ship handling and maintenance specialties whose tasks have to be provided for both in personnel and in logistic support, along with all of the financial commitments doing that entails. I presume Mr. Musk will operate these ships under Texas registration and regulations; if so he might want to strongly consider creating a Texas-based security company which employs Level III licensed guards trained to function in a nautical environment (trained EMT's/Paramedics and maybe rescue swimmers combines several potential requirements), particularly in light of the threat potential such a complex investment seems almost certain to attract. (See: Update below)

There is plenty of existing commercial experience to draw upon to develop a shore support effort (all those oil well platforms in the Gulf and elsewhere); and let's face it, aircraft carriers have been in existence for a century now, as has replenishing them logistically underway - hardly cutting edge science there. A lot of additional features to develop of course; making sure your boat doesn't catch fire and explode every landing and launch understandably being high on that list. Mr. Musk and his team will be fully occupied for some years getting all of this underweigh.

A technology I think Mr. Musk should look into is Life Proof Boats (I don't have any connection to the company, I'm just impressed with what I've seen so far) . They don't heavily advertise them, but they do offer a 48' version that at first look seems a useful platform to economically provide logistic support to a vessel operating within a few hundred miles of harbor, as well as fire fighting support and crew escape (one of these could easily tow one or two standard 20 person life rafts) while the carrier is on station. Hanging some Oxe Diesel Outboard Engines off the stern would permit an economy of performance hard to beat, I think (no connection to this company either, but one fuel for all vessels just seems a better option to me). Additionally, I can't help believing that Star Link provides a platform by which much of the work involved with one or a fleet of space launch and recovery ships can be equally well performed remotely by operators on shore.

Additionally, I find myself attracted to the idea that, much like commercial yachts hiring their Captain and Chief Engineer to be involved in the vessel build process, potentially being able to watch the development of the procedures and technologies used to achieve the SpaceX fleet logistics requirements during their development strongly attracts me. In part because I served on a USN carrier back at the tail end of the Vietnam war, in part because I like the challenge of small boat handling (on and off the boat), and in part because I worked 15+ years in some aspect of logistics that didn't involve a desk.

We'll see ... and that's the best part of all.  :)

*Jerry Pournelle famously coined the phrase, "It's raining soup in space, we just need to build a bowl and go get some."

Update 6/21/2020: A security force - importantly, one that works for you - that is trained in repelling, investigating, and documenting (to appropriate legal standard) criminal acts both on and off the high seas isn't a needless cost; see: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/world/americas/gulf-mexico-pirates-ships.html

It's All In The Timing, Phil

A couple of years ago now, Phil Bowermaster organized a project involving contributed ideas from others; the below is a re-wording of my suggestion that didn't make the submission cut. The principle objection I can remember being raised was, in so many words, "Why would Jeff Bezos do any such thing? What's in it for him?" What seemed a foregone conclusion to me then, wasn't at all obvious to Phil (or anyone else, come to that) a year-and-a-half ago. With Jeff Bezos' recent announcement regarding off-planet production and heavy manufacturing plans, I'm prompted to dust this submission off, re-tool it in ways large and not-so, and see if anyone notices. Herewith, My Proposal:

How Jeff Bezos Can Hire Humanity.

[last edit made to this document on January 14, 2015 by Phil Bowermaster]

The basic idea being suggested here is that Jeff Bezos (of Amazon.com fame) spends the money necessary to develop an online game quite similar in concept to that developed by the US Army to teach potential recruits the conceptual basics of soldiering competencies.  From the Americas Army wikipedia page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americas_Army), details of the game’s progression to gradually more difficult actions and capabilities needed by the individual player suggests a model for how such a game format could teach players how to successfully conceptualize, operate and/or maintain complex machinery remotely, both individually and in coordination with other players.  One possible mechanism whereby players could test their skills development would involve modifying at least some Amazon.com warehouse operations to permit remote operation of material handling and loading machines (basically modified fork lift trucks). By performing stipulated and rigorously measured portions of the functions of that company's order fulfillment operations, in cooperation with the on-site human staff already locally employed, a real-world process development laboratory could be created at little added expense.

As the Americas Army game experience makes clear, it becomes a fairly straightforward (if by no means easy or cheap) development process to create a game format that applies the same compendium of instruction concepts for use within progressively more complex and radical environments.  Like underwater archaeology and marine salvage.  Like air, land, sea and even extra-planetary search and rescue operations.  Like orbital clean-up operations in association with other private companies as well as government extra-planetary agencies. Like orbital mining and refining operations (not to push the point too hard).  Like lunar (or undersea) exploration and development.  Like orbital construction and tourism.  Like continued exploration and colonization of Mars and other orbital bodies within our Solar system.  As a straightforward extrapolation of related-seeming technologies, exploration and resource acquisition operations in the asteroid belt might be developed from terrestrial undersea or deep underground mining operations skill sets learned in the game.  

In the near-immediate time frame: universal language translation programs developed by a consortium of bi- or multilingual individuals working remotely through dedicated server and data storage devices managed and marketed within the game environment.  Physical security monitoring and response operations so that individuals can be employed to remotely carry out traditional security observation and emergency response tasks on a continuous basis and, not incidentally, earn a living through the game environment while developing their more technical skill sets.

The game would be structured in several layers of play experience.  The initial level would test player skill and general knowledge levels and supply the means to begin further developing those through game interaction.  By doing so, players can “teach themselves” to transition to the next level of play.

The second level would offer individual players the means to transition from simply playing the game, to performing game functions in an occupational setting.  Initially these would be in the Amazon test-of-concept order fulfillment center or the security services suggested earlier in this document, but these and future players would move on to other, more technical, types of work as quickly as their ability permits and opportunities can be made available.  These opportunities do not necessarily require a purely business motive; scientific research and public service operations both come readily to mind as alternative possibilities for player development through remote operations performed through the game interface.

For those players who wish to develop a more general academic knowledge base, the game interface could be linked to any of the host of online education portals that exist. Documenting continuing education is already part of corporate structure, incorporating that into the game format shouldn't pose too excessive a problem. Additional, more specifically focused, levels of play are certainly possible, but itemizing a list of that nature exceeds my limited editorial skills. Suffice it to say that I envision the game process described here as being a species of digital skilled trades hiring hall and training school to develop the host of technically skilled employees for an industry that doesn't actually exist yet that Jeff Bezos will be needing to hire around the world to remotely construct and operate the orbital facilities he has described elsewhere. Ultimately, all of the above tasks (and more, I'm confident) performed by humans, working part time on multiple projects and jobs, in remote cooperation with as-yet uncountable other humans, designing, building, operating and maintaining machines and facilities big and small for use in every conceivable environment that human science enables human or machine access to.  And all of those people working directly for, or as a result of being trained by, Jeff Bezos (well, one of his companies).

Alternatively, we can just sit around between rioting stewing in our frustrated juices, watching the planet's accessible resources be further consumed, while we await the promise of fusion AI to save/doom us all.

While I envision this type of work being comfortably performed from a space in one's home smaller than an ordinary American bathroom (about 15 cubic meters or so - 2 x 3 x 2.5 meters roughly), one of the obvious early investment and partnership opportunities arising from such a planet-spanning effort is construction of a location in local neighborhoods that provides the residents with a game participation site outside their private home or apartment. There seem to be a number of vacant former book stores available for re-purposing in recent years.

One of the most pressing challenges humanity currently confronts is how we will collectively transition out of the undeniably collapsing Industrial Revolution social and economic model we currently experience.  The game concept presented here is one possible mechanism for achieving that transition on a widespread and minimally disruptive basis.  It remains only to develop the platform necessary to spark the growth of that process throughout the human species.

Space In The Campaign

Want to hear all about the actual technology required for a Moon Colony and Getting There From Here (and just how available all that stuff actually is)? Tune in to Fast Forward Radio at The Speculist tomorrow night (2/1/12) at the special time of 11 pm eastern/10 pm central to listen to Rand Simberg and Brian Wang, two guys who actually know what they're talking about and aren't running for any political office (and aren't indebted to anyone who is :)).

Yo, Phil, Stephen; I don't give a damn what else is in the news for this show at least. Tell the nice people who these guys are and then get straight to it!

To Infinity ... or not, maybe

Gunbloggers doing Space and Singularity.

This could get interesting once we settle on terms and such. One thing seems certain, the discussion in his comments won't get too out of bounds, what with the other interest of the involved parties.

via Kevin Baker, who I didn't know geeked in quite this way before now.

Shirley it can't be this simple, can it? With Update

If I'm reading this at all correctly (as ever, not a given), then one of these Hyperion Power Modules ought to be sufficient for virtually any reasonable SSTO application short of a Pournelle/Niven novel. If that truly proves to be the case (and we ought to have a fairly definitive answer by next spring per Prof Yang), then a robotic mission to capture and deliver an asteroidal body to Earth orbit oughtn't not be too much further into the near-term future I should think. Something small to start, on the order of a cubic mile say.

The above is my comment in initial reaction to this Brian Wang post regarding a potential EMDrive module to be tested in China later this year.

While reference is made to solar power being the energizing force, I suggest that an enclosed and stable power supply as part of any vehicle's structure (whether space or atmospheric) is much more versatile and reliable (within design parameters, of course). Getting a mission to Mars in 41 days via solar power is all well and good, but powering any subsequent surface activity post orbital insertion is going to require something a bit more substantial and less subject to external debilitation, I would think.

I've forwarded this to Rand Simberg and Jerry Pournelle for their thoughts.

Update 8/25: Not a direct response to my e-mail, but on topic nonetheless, from Jerry Pournelle's Current View for Thursday, Sept 25 entry:

For some reason there are a lot of recent reports of reactionless drives. I pay little attention to them, because if someone can build a working model, it is easy enough to demonstrate. After all it doesn't need to work very well; just a tiny bit of hanging off center in a swing is all that's needed to generate enormous excitement. If there's any thrust at all, it is easy to prove. We have had many theories of reactionless drives, the best worked out being that of Col. Wm. Davis, Ph.D.; none of these have resulted in a working model. I have neither the time nor the competence to evaluate theories, and so far no one has offered me the chance to inspect an actual working model. I'd still love to see a working spacedrive. I doubt that I ever will.

Shaw drive - not workable

Regarding the reactionless drive the Chinese are wasting their money on: ShawyerFraud.

The short version: Shaw's diagrams leave out the axial vector component of the force exerted on the slanting sides of the cone, which, added to the lesser force on the smaller end, precisely balances out the force on the larger end. There is no change in overall motion.

Rollory

I have other notes claiming that the Chinese are working on reactionless drives. I doubt much will come of it, but I certainly wouldn't stop watching them just in case...

[hyperlink edit mine]

Blissfully displaying my ignorance, I wonder if the Shawyer drive force is at all equivalent to the electromagnetic force? If a magnet is placed within the field of a larger magnet the smaller of the two moves without any measurable change of force on the part of the smaller magnet. If you substitute a variable current to an electro-magnet for the smaller magnet, wouldn't the subsequent action be equivalent to that proposed by Shawyer? I don't know obviously, but given the limits of analogy (magnetism for gravity) this seems to fit the description of what's theoretically happening.

Whole Lotta Power In That Candle

"Come on Baby, Fire my Light ... "


Hmmm, doesn't trip very errr, lightly off the tongue (over the teeth?), does it?

(via James Hudnall)

In My Defense

This past Saturday, Al Fin wrote, "... Eric Pianka, a University of Texas ecologist who suggests repeatedly in public appearances that viruses such as Ebola should be modified so as to be able to kill off 90% of earth's human population."; see here:

http://alfin2100.blogspot.com/2007/08/if-this-man-and-his-friends-try-to-kill.html

I commented, in so many words, that if the professor or his friends came around my house, they could expect to get shot. A few things about that seem in need of a fuller reply.

I think it important to note first that the piece of legislation I referred to in my glibness doesn't take effect until this coming September. That circumstance wouldn't really effect my actions in an attack, I should point out, only those of the attorney I hire afterwards.

Secondly, while my reply was both honest and legitimate on the purely personal level, all the firearms in the world would, at best, be only a limiting factor in a gas or biologic attack. Which isn't all that different a condition from any other form of attack, when you stop to think about it. Despite the commonly expressed intent of self-defense, I carry a gun to enable me to more effectively carry out a counter-attack should that necessity ever be forced upon me. I am well aware that my gun won't stop his bullet from doing me harm. What it will do is provide me the means to shoot him in turn, and hopefully kill him first. That's what practice is all about.

None of which, I should point out, actually deals with the legitimate societal concerns Al Fin raised in his post. Societal self-defense isn't simply the aggregate of our individual efforts alone. Nor, despite the euphemism, should it be based solely upon our country's military offensive capabilities, although that is essentially the reality. That's the problem with euphemisms, people mostly ignore the underlying assumptions they're built upon. The one about the "best defense", for instance, is only true if you have a secure base from which to generate an offense.

This circumstance isn't at all unusual as regards American defense preparedness, by the way. Mutually Assured Destruction may have worked out in the end, but it certainly wasn't a defensive posture. In the event of an attack, we can hammer anybody flat. And, after any attack to date, we've demonstrated we can clean up and return to business as usual, too.

Which arguably works well enough for an attack from outside, but what about Professor Pianka's "assisted suicide" scenario? I suggest Al Fin himself (and others earlier, this particular eco-loon has been a public embarrassment for some time now) provides evidence that we do have an effective means of defense; ourselves. Fin's post is actually the most recent iteration of our civil defense system; public watchfulness, individual preparedness and societal cooperation for containment and necessary cleanup. Despite my enjoyment of fictional apocalypse stories, I much prefer actually living in the real world where babbling fools like Pianka aren't a problem, they're an active part of our defense, as a good tripwire should be.

There are excellent reasons for expanding human civilisation into space; fear of ourselves isn't one of them.